Akramjon Nematov, First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Research beneath the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan – Kyrgyzstan Summit – Indicator of New Developments in Central Asian RegionThe state go to of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Kyrgyzstan ended the day earlier than. Undoubtedly, the importance of its outcomes will go down within the historical past of bilateral relations. Furthermore, they mark a brand new stage within the means of regional cooperation. I might even say that the importance of the outcomes of the go to goes past the area and will even play an essential position in stabilizing the whole system of worldwide relations.
There are good causes for such an assertion. Through the go to, an finish was lastly put to the problem of settling the state border, which for a few years was a supply of interstate pressure and held again the complete potential of bilateral cooperation, furthermore, served as a pretext for positioning the area as a hotbed of everlasting instability. This had a destructive affect on the efforts of our international locations to draw funding and implement long-term plans for sustainable improvement. Earlier, Uzbekistan settled the problem of delimitation of borders with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and closed the problem of demarcation with Kazakhstan. This, after all, is an enormous breakthrough and can turn out to be a brand new start line within the formation of a brand new structure not just for bilateral, but additionally for regional cooperation.
As well as, through the go to, the events confirmed their agency political will to proceed joint work on the implementation of initiatives for the development of the China – Kyrgyzstan – Uzbekistan railway, in addition to the Kambarata HPP-1. Furthermore, the events signed an funding settlement on the implementation of the Kambarata-1 challenge, agreed on the development of small hydroelectric energy vegetation, together with on the Chatkal River in Kyrgyzstan. An settlement on the joint manufacturing of vehicles, constructing supplies, pharmaceutical merchandise and medicines, knitted materials, clothes and knitwear, yarn, coal, electrical engineering, and agricultural merchandise has turn out to be extraordinarily essential. All of those initiatives, which complement related agreements beforehand reached with different neighboring international locations, can act as triggers for the event of many sectors of the economic system not solely of particular person international locations, however of the whole area. They are going to make it attainable to unlock the large manufacturing, transport, logistics and power potential of Central Asia, guarantee sustainable improvement and integration of the area into worldwide worth chains.
Basically, the outcomes of the Uzbekistan – Kyrgyzstan Summit in Bishkek enable us to attract a number of essential conclusions.
First, the international locations of Central Asia are actively forcing the formation of a brand new regional mannequin of financial cooperation. There’s a transition from commodity alternate to deeper financial integration by means of the event of business cooperation based mostly on the usage of aggressive benefits and complementarity of the economies of the states of the area. This contributes to the event of producing merchandise with the next stage of business processing and added worth, which in flip makes it attainable to interchange costly imports in home markets, in addition to enter the markets of third international locations with extra aggressive merchandise, and relieve the economic system of the Central Asian states from dependence on uncooked materials exports. It additionally will increase the steadiness of the markets of our states within the face of exterior components attributable to the disruption and rises in the price of manufacturing and provide chains, volatility in costs for meals and power merchandise. An interconnected self-sufficient capacious market, an area for industrial and technological improvement is being fashioned within the area.
The joint use of the hydropower potential of the area will turn out to be an essential step not solely towards creating a typical power market, but additionally growing the competitiveness of the Central Asian economic system on this planet market. The event of trade based mostly on the usage of clear power with a low share of fossil fuels is a aggressive benefit for the area within the context of a inexperienced transformation and a gradual development within the transition of most international locations to a low-carbon economic system.
Second, within the context of rising geopolitical tensions, lack of belief and lack of dialogue in worldwide relations, which exacerbates interstate conflicts, Central Asia demonstrates excessive accountability for the way forward for the area, depends on diplomacy and the seek for mutually acceptable compromises on all advanced key points for the sake of basic safety and prosperity. This exhibits the maturity of the political elites of the Central Asian states, their readiness to construct a international coverage within the pursuits of the peoples of their states, which turn out to be the final word beneficiaries of the Central Asian rapprochement.
That is confirmed by the financial indicators of the area. Thus, the overall international commerce turnover of Central Asia in the present day has reached about $200 billion, exhibiting a rise of 60% in comparison with 2016. On the identical time, the share of intra-regional commerce elevated twice, overcoming the mark of 10%. The influx of international investments into the area can be rising. So, whereas in 2019-2020 worldwide, FDI inflows decreased by 35%, in Central Asia there was a rise, even within the pandemic 12 months of 2020 by 3%, and in 2021 by 71%. Basically, over this era, the share of investments in Central Asia within the whole quantity on this planet elevated from 1.6% to 2.5%. Because of this, the expansion price of regional GDP in recent times was inside 6%, by the top of 2022, based on preliminary estimates, shall be greater than 4%, and in 2023 it’s anticipated at a stage of about 5%. This may carry the area’s GDP to $400 billion, virtually twice as a lot as in 2010.
It’s apparent that the strategy chosen by Central Asia to constructing interstate relations, based mostly on the ideas of mutual respect and consideration of pursuits, good neighborliness and mutually useful cooperation, in the present day justifies itself, is in nice demand in worldwide relations and, as a mannequin, can affect different areas of the world as a multiplicative impact.
Third, in the present day we’re witnessing a brand new development – the strengthening of Central Asian identification. That is mirrored within the statements of the leaders of the states of the area that each one efforts to develop good neighborly relations are geared toward turning Central Asia into an area of safety, stability and customary prosperity. This additionally manifests itself in mutual acts of solidarity. So, in a pandemic, for instance, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan assisted one another. Uzbekistan despatched humanitarian assist to Kyrgyzstan 4 instances and constructed 3 modular infectious illnesses hospitals (in Kadamjai district of Batken area, Bishkek metropolis and Chui area). In flip, through the man-made catastrophe on the Sardoba reservoir, Kyrgyzstan offered humanitarian assist to the victims. All this additionally means that the Central Asian rapprochement is a fait accompli. The states overcome “nationwide egoisms” and understand that solely collectively, it’s attainable to achieve the trajectory of sustainable progress and new frontiers of joint improvement.
The Central Asian states in the present day are collectively forming a brand new paradigm of perceiving the area as an integral, interconnected, not solely politically but additionally economically cohesive house. That is not a “powder keg”, however an area for sustainable improvement and mutually useful cooperation. And this considerably will increase the worldwide subjectivity of Central Asia, making it extra immune to exterior and inside challenges.